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What the Crude Oil Situation Really Looks Like

2022.06.19

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered massive price hikes of crude oil worldwide; a barrel of WTI crude oil in May 2022 cost an average of $109.60, and the 2022 year-to-date average price has already reached $98.95. 

Below is the average annual price of WTI crude oil since the beginning of the 21st century: 

Year 

$/Barrel

2001

25.92

2002

26.09

2003

31.11

2004

41.44

2005

56.44

2006

66.04

2007

72.28

2008

99.56

2009

61.65

2010

79.43

2011

95.05

2012

94.16

2013

97.94

2014

93.11

2015

48.71

2016

43.19

2017

50.91

2018

64.82

2019

57.01

2020

39.31

2021

67.96

2022

98.95

 

In late 2020, world crude production hovered around 88.73 million barrels per day. The largest producer was the United States (16.39 million barrels per day), followed by Saudi Arabia (11.15 million barrels/day), then Russia (10.65 million barrels/day). These three countries accounted for over 40% of the world’s crude oil production.

Saudi Arabia led the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries in barrels produced per day, which collectively accounted for 35% of global oil production. The OPEC countries also include Iraq, UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, and other countries. 

The OPEC Plus countries, including Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan, accounted for 19% of global crude oil production. Collectively, the OPEC and OPEC plus countries produced 55% of global crude oil. (Note: OPEC Plus = OPEC + 13 countries) 

The US, Canada, China, Norway, Brazil, and Qatar are among the countries that are neither OPEC nor OPEC-plus countries. Non-OPEC-plus countries account for 45% of global crude oil production. 

 Japan’s lead crude oil importer in 2020 was Saudi Arabia (43% of imports), followed by the UAE (30%), Kuwait (9%), Qatar (8%), then Russia (4%).  

Overall, 82% of imported oil to Japan came from OPEC countries. The Middle East accounted for 92% of our country’s crude oil imports. 

 

Here is how Japan’s dependence on the Middle East vs OPEC has changed over the years *  **:

 

Middle East (%)

OPEC (%)

Year

Notable Oil Events 

78

93

1973

First Oil Crisis

78

89

1975

 

71

86

1980

Second Oil Crisis

69

72

1985

 

72

78

1990

The Gulf War 

79

80

1995

 

87

88

2000

 

89

90

2005

 

87

84

2010

 

83

84

2015

 

92

82

2020

 

*Oil Imports from Indonesia were counted with OPEC until 2005, then non-OPEC from 2010.

**Oil Imports from Qatar were counted with OPEC until 2015, then with the Middle East from 2020 (8% of imports in 2020). 

Unlike natural gas, Japan has become increasingly dependent on the Middle East for crude oil. 

In 2021, natural gas imports to Japan came from: 

Country 

% of Total Natural Gas Imported to Japan 

Australia 

36

Malaysia 

13

United States 

11

Qatar

11

Russia 

9

Brunei 

5

Papua New Guinea 

5

Indonesia 

2

Oman 

2

UAE 

2

As of March 2021, Japan has exceeded its crude oil stockpile goals; private stockpiles had 88 days’ worth of supply compared to its 70-day goal. National stockpiles amounted to 149 days’ worth of crude oil, compared to its 90-day goal. An additional seven days’ worth of crude oil supply is also stocked by private tanks in Japan that get their supply through state-controlled foreign oil companies. 




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