What the Crude Oil Situation Really Looks Like
2022.06.19
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered massive price hikes of crude oil worldwide; a barrel of WTI crude oil in May 2022 cost an average of $109.60, and the 2022 year-to-date average price has already reached $98.95.
Below is the average annual price of WTI crude oil since the beginning of the 21st century:
|
Year |
$/Barrel |
|
2001 |
25.92 |
|
2002 |
26.09 |
|
2003 |
31.11 |
|
2004 |
41.44 |
|
2005 |
56.44 |
|
2006 |
66.04 |
|
2007 |
72.28 |
|
2008 |
99.56 |
|
2009 |
61.65 |
|
2010 |
79.43 |
|
2011 |
95.05 |
|
2012 |
94.16 |
|
2013 |
97.94 |
|
2014 |
93.11 |
|
2015 |
48.71 |
|
2016 |
43.19 |
|
2017 |
50.91 |
|
2018 |
64.82 |
|
2019 |
57.01 |
|
2020 |
39.31 |
|
2021 |
67.96 |
|
2022 |
98.95 |
In late 2020, world crude production hovered around 88.73 million barrels per day. The largest producer was the United States (16.39 million barrels per day), followed by Saudi Arabia (11.15 million barrels/day), then Russia (10.65 million barrels/day). These three countries accounted for over 40% of the world’s crude oil production.
Saudi Arabia led the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries in barrels produced per day, which collectively accounted for 35% of global oil production. The OPEC countries also include Iraq, UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, and other countries.
The OPEC Plus countries, including Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan, accounted for 19% of global crude oil production. Collectively, the OPEC and OPEC plus countries produced 55% of global crude oil. (Note: OPEC Plus = OPEC + 13 countries)
The US, Canada, China, Norway, Brazil, and Qatar are among the countries that are neither OPEC nor OPEC-plus countries. Non-OPEC-plus countries account for 45% of global crude oil production.
Japan’s lead crude oil importer in 2020 was Saudi Arabia (43% of imports), followed by the UAE (30%), Kuwait (9%), Qatar (8%), then Russia (4%).
Overall, 82% of imported oil to Japan came from OPEC countries. The Middle East accounted for 92% of our country’s crude oil imports.
Here is how Japan’s dependence on the Middle East vs OPEC has changed over the years * **:
|
Middle East (%) |
OPEC (%) |
Year |
Notable Oil Events |
|
78 |
93 |
1973 |
First Oil Crisis |
|
78 |
89 |
1975 |
|
|
71 |
86 |
1980 |
Second Oil Crisis |
|
69 |
72 |
1985 |
|
|
72 |
78 |
1990 |
The Gulf War |
|
79 |
80 |
1995 |
|
|
87 |
88 |
2000 |
|
|
89 |
90 |
2005 |
|
|
87 |
84 |
2010 |
|
|
83 |
84 |
2015 |
|
|
92 |
82 |
2020 |
*Oil Imports from Indonesia were counted with OPEC until 2005, then non-OPEC from 2010.
**Oil Imports from Qatar were counted with OPEC until 2015, then with the Middle East from 2020 (8% of imports in 2020).
Unlike natural gas, Japan has become increasingly dependent on the Middle East for crude oil.
In 2021, natural gas imports to Japan came from:
|
Country |
% of Total Natural Gas Imported to Japan |
|
Australia |
36 |
|
Malaysia |
13 |
|
United States |
11 |
|
Qatar |
11 |
|
Russia |
9 |
|
Brunei |
5 |
|
Papua New Guinea |
5 |
|
Indonesia |
2 |
|
Oman |
2 |
|
UAE |
2 |
As of March 2021, Japan has exceeded its crude oil stockpile goals; private stockpiles had 88 days’ worth of supply compared to its 70-day goal. National stockpiles amounted to 149 days’ worth of crude oil, compared to its 90-day goal. An additional seven days’ worth of crude oil supply is also stocked by private tanks in Japan that get their supply through state-controlled foreign oil companies.
